This morning, researchers at Colorado State University released their first report for the 2018 hurricane season, predicting that it will include at least 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, which will pack sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour.
Klotzbach, a research scientist, pointed a year ago in a season wrap-up to "the record-breaking levels of hurricane activity that occurred during September" with Harvey, Irma and Maria, "the most notable storms of 2017, leaving paths of death and destruction in their wake". However, last year's hurricane season actually had 17 named storms, with 10 of those being hurricanes.
For those still grappling with the devastation of hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria a year ago, the 2018 hurricane season may not offer a reprieve.
This was the 35th annual CSU preseason prediction. Seven of those are expected to become hurricanes and three are expected to be major hurricanes.
So far, researchers say the 2018 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1960, 1967, 1996, 2006 and 2011. El Nino, a warming of the ocean in the Pacific that affects global climate, makes it harder for hurricanes to form with a strong wind shear across the Atlantic.
The next CSU seasonal forecast will be issued on May 31, and the report noted that its forecast accuracy increases as the peak of the season approaches in September.
And there are anomalies that are at work as well.
In total, the team believes there will be 14 named storms.
While hurricanes thrive on hot ocean water, the eastern Atlantic is cool, and the western part of the basin is warm.
CSU also put the accumulated cyclone energy at 130, compared to a 92 median level, and sees the net tropical cyclone activity at 135, above the 103 median level.
However, researchers do point out that it only takes one hurricane making landfall for an area to be considered as having an active hurricane season.