Oil slumps below $65 as OPEC clash looms, trade war escalates

WTI Crude Oil

Weekly August WTI Crude OilMore

ICE August Brent settled $1.90 higher at $75.34/b, while NYMEX July crude lagged comparatively, rising 79 cents to $65.85/b.

Oil prices fell further on Monday, pulled down by an expectation that producer club OPEC and its allies will increase supplies.

The market is now roughly in balance, even though U.S. producers have continued to increase their output, which is running at about 10 million barrels per day (Mbpd). The global economy is stronger, fossil-fuel energy demand is at a record high, and the nuclear deal that allowed Iran, an Opec member, to start selling oil again is in tatters.

USA shale producers can step up to meet any supply deficit, but Roberts and Phil Flynn, senior energy analyst at the Price Futures Group, said it takes time for them to increase output because of the nature of shale mining.

Behind the scenes, the Donald Trump administration, anxious about the impact of rising gas prices on mid-term voters, is lobbying hard for a surge in production.

Non-OPEC members including Russia, Oman and Mexico also agreed to cut 558,000 bpd off their production to stabilise the market.

Oil is in focus ahead of an OPEC meeting on Friday, and a strengthening United States dollar is weighing on gold prices. Those who hate me call me crude."I worry for my future; everyone now talks down on me". The discussions will be followed by a visit to Siemens Dual VET Centre, Berlin, Germany.He will also meet Ms. Anja Karliczek, German Federal Minister for Education and Research on 22nd June, 2018 and discuss mutual issues on Vocational Education & Training (VET) Cooperation between India and Germany.

"The market is well-supplied, and OPEC should abide by its decision up to the end of the year", he said.

Oil prices slipped on Tuesday in volatile market conditions ahead of a meeting between major producers later this week to discuss pumping more.

There is no incentive for those countries to agree to an increase in OPEC's production because they have no capacity to respond to one. It isn't yet a done deal, as Iran is opposed to increasing production and Brent futures recovered after reports of a much smaller compromise output hike. After writing to OPEC and calling for the organization's support for members targeted by sanctions, Iran, along with Venezuela and Iraq, is going to veto Saudi Arabia and Russia's proposal at the June 22 meeting.

"Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E., and Kuwait will increase by a combined 500,000 barrels a day, beginning in July", with Russian Federation adding about 200,000 in two to three months, analysts including Mike Wittner wrote in a report.

Roberts said Opec could boost production by about a million barrels day fairly rapidly, but several Opec countries have problems. China imports about 365,000 barrels a day of United States crude. Markets in Hong Kong and mainland China were closed for a holiday. Venezuela experiences severe production outage, and already lost 350,000 barrels / day this year with the decline accelerating.

If implemented, China may react to US tariffs by putting a 25 percent duty on USA crude oil imports, which have been surging since 2017, to a business now worth nearly $1 billion per month.

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