Oil prices at four-year high with no supply boost in sight

Oil prices at four-year high with no supply boost in sight

Oil prices at four-year high with no supply boost in sight

The price of Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, climbed past $80 a barrel on Monday, following a decision by OPEC and its allies not to further increase production.

"The Trump administration is pushing politics into the OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries), and is aiming at spreading the members and securing their own interests by getting lower prices and so forth", Hossein Kazempour, Iran's OPEC representative, told CNBC's Steve Sedgwick at the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) in Algiers on Sunday.

Adhering to production quotas agreed upon in late 2016 would mean OPEC and non-OPEC members will have to find a way to compensate for the 500,000 barrels a day that might be lost from both Iran and Venezuela.

"The Algiers meeting did not bring about an increase in output - and that is fuelling the rally".

"The market is what determines the oil prices", he added.

Trump however, wants output increased by as much as two million barrels per day, as oil prices continue to rise in the United States amid high consumer demand. "I don't know of any refiner in the world who is looking for oil and is not able to get it", Falih said, adding that Saudi Arabia could raise output by up to 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) if needed.

A second round of penalties targeting Iran's oil exports is due to come into effect in early November, and the US administration has been pressuring other countries to cut their Iranian crude imports.

J.P. Morgan wrote in its latest market outlook "a spike to $90 per barrel is likely" in the coming months due to USA sanctions on Iranian oil exports, which have fallen dramatically in recent months as importers brace for the impending penalties.

JP Morgan said USA sanctions on Iran could lead to a loss of 1,5 million bpd, while Mercuria warned that as much as 2 million bpd could be knocked out of the market.

Ashley Kelty, oil analyst at financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald said crude could soon hit US$90 per barrel.

OPEC in December 2016 concluded an agreement with non-member states - including Russian Federation - to reduce output in order to arrest sliding prices.

Total primary energy demand is expected to increase by 91 million barrels oil equivalent per day (mboe/d) and reach 364,7 mboe/d in 2040, according to OPEC's World Oil Outlook for 2018.

In addition to USA sanctions cutting Iranian supply, the world is also dealing with a decline in Venezuelan oil production due to an economic crisis in the Latin American nation, according to Trafigura's Luckock.

He also expected the OPEC "to attract more oil producer countries to join the agreements and help safeguard and sustain the global oil market balance". The biggest source of new global supply, US shale, is also experiencing growing pains as pipeline bottlenecks and workforce issues hamper growth. "We in Saudi Arabia have not seen demand for any additional barrel that we did not produce". Rapid growth in USA production means that oil stockpiles could expand again next year, but it's too early to say whether the production limits agreed in 2016 would need to remain in place, he said.

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