IMF Says U.S. Sanctions Have Pushed Iran's Economy Into Recession

Oil and Election Going to Impact Market Nilesh Shah

Oil and Election Going to Impact Market Nilesh Shah

Mr. Pradhan also said he had spoken to Saudi Arabia's Oil Minister two days ago regarding the higher oil prices and how prices should not be set with the interest of producing countries but also by keeping consuming countries' interests in mind.

In a sign that Iran oil exports won't fall to nothing from November, India will buy 9 million barrels of Iranian crude next month, Reuters reported on Friday.

As reported, Indian Oil Corp will lift six million barrels of Iranian oil while Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd ships in three million barrels.

The Trump administration is open to allowing some countries to continue importing Iranian oil, despite promises to tighten the screws on Tehran and any country that continues doing business with the Islamic Republic, according to USA officials who confirmed to the Washington Free Beacon that some nations may get a temporary pass from a cadre of new sanctions set to be imposed next month.

Wells, who was in New Delhi earlier this month as part of the delegation accompanying US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo for the India-US "2+2" dialogue, said there was no "blanket waiver or country-specific waiver" from US sanctions on trading with or investing in Iran or buying arms from Russian Federation.

"The US government's tough stance raised the stakes for a more significant Iran export loss than previously foreseen", said Norbert Ruecker, head of macro and commodity research at Swiss bank Julius Baer. "Iran's oil can not be replaced by Saudi Arabia".

The IMF downgraded the economic growth forecasts for the whole region of the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, compared to the April edition of the World Economic Outlook, reflecting "to an important extent the worsening of growth prospects for Iran, following the reimposition of USA sanctions", the IMF said in the October outlook.

The US expects all countries, including India, to reduce their Iranian oil imports to zero.

Increasing tensions between the United States and Venezuela; the USA demanding an end to all imports of Iranian oil by early November; and the rupee's performance as Asia's worst performing currency of the year have compounded the situation and put India in a hard spot.

Refiners have already announced purchases of oil from Iran for November at levels nearly similar to those in October, despite the start of the sanctions on the 4 November.

These concerns remain. Innes warned that limited spare production to deal with further supply disruptions meant "the capacity is quickly declining due to Asia's insatiable demand".

Brent crude prices are now hovering around US$86 a barrel and global traders are betting that they will go past US$100.

The cost of the Indian basket of crude rose to $84.14 a barrel on 5 October, according to the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell. Also, subsidised domestic cooking gas prices have been increased by Rs 2.89 per 14.2 kg cylinder to Rs 502.40, an all-time high.

On the last week's excise duty and fuel price cut, the minister said these prices will not be deregulated.

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